In his recent televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a new phase in the conflict in Ukraine. He announced that Russia would annex occupied Ukrainian territories. The annexation would take place immediately, and the occupied territories would be considered to be part of Russia’s national territory. He also stated that Russia was prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend its occupied territory. He also ordered a partial mobilization of the Russian military, the equivalent of a military draft.
Russian president Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine
Russia has a lot riding on its actions in Ukraine, but it isn’t quite clear what the Kremlin wants from it. The Kremlin’s view of the world is very different from that of external observers, which is why understanding the Russians’ intentions is tricky.
One possibility is that Putin wants to subjugate the Ukrainian government and put a friendly regime there instead. Such a government would be neutral and demilitarized, and would then bargain with NATO for new security arrangements, possibly including the restriction on the number of Russian troops in NATO countries after 1997, and steps that turn Ukraine into a vassal state. This possibility may be true, but the price of such a strategy will likely be the burning of bridges with the West.
There are several possible ends to Putin’s campaign. First, he wants Kyiv to install a new government under his rule, and second, he wants the West to recognize a post-Soviet sphere of influence. Third, he wants to use his newfound influence to reshape Europe’s security system, and finally, he wants to resurrect the Russian Empire in former Warsaw Pact states.
Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine do not seem to be the best way to resolve their Ukrainian problem. A war with Ukraine does not end well for the regime in Russia, and it will probably lead to instability. Even if it doesn’t end in a bloody civil war, Putin’s actions could make the Russian regime more vulnerable to China.
The Russian army has been pouring troops into Ukrainian territory from various directions. It’s gaining ground in the south and east of the country, but has had difficulty in the north. However, the Ukrainians have fought back against Russia’s advance and have defended the cities of Kharkiv and Chernihiv.
China’s distancing itself from Russia’s war effort
China’s decision to back Russia in its war against Ukraine is significant. While China isn’t a member of the UN, it has made clear that it will not sanction Russia. However, it has abstained from voting on key UN resolutions on the conflict. And Chinese firms are cautious about continuing business with Russia, fearing secondary sanctions. It is not clear if China will provide lethal weapons to Russia. If it does, it will likely spark further questions.
China’s statements on Russia’s war in Ukraine have come under fire from Western observers. A joint statement by Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Russian president’s visit to China sounded alarm bells, signaling an increasing alignment of two great powers against their allies and the United States. While the joint statement does suggest that China would support Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is also misleading.
The Chinese public has been fed propaganda defending Russia’s actions in Ukraine and demonizing the United States and NATO. It has been shielded from other perspectives, which makes them easily mobilized by one-sided nationalistic arguments. Ultimately, this makes the situation even worse.
The two countries are not likely to ally for the long term. The recent war in Ukraine has exposed the fissures in their relationship. Even if Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was unintended, it seems that the war has reacted in China’s favor. With American power drawn to Europe, it has rendered Russia more reliant on China. Moreover, China stands to gain from the economic benefits from sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as discounted prices for Russian commodities.
While it may be tempting for China to lead a mediation effort in Ukraine, the ability of Beijing to deliver the Chinese side is unsure. Beijing’s inexperience and limited capacity may hamper the chances of an agreement with Russia. And even if they do manage to make a deal, their efforts could weaken both Russia and the West, and strengthen Beijing’s position vis-à-vis Washington.
U.S. threats of military action against Russia
Russia has made itself a powerful player in the world. It has positioned itself as an alternative to the United States and acts as a pressure valve in many countries. For example, Russia provides Venezuelan leaders with loans and “private” security details. Russia also supplies arms and financial support to regimes. Russia’s role as global spoiler comes at a cost. It is time to increase sanctions against Russia-friendly regimes.
Russia, meanwhile, anticipates that a Western response will pass quickly. The United States and European Union are likely to impose sanctions, but those sanctions would soon subside, and Russia would eventually be able to reengage in the international system. After all, Russia has spent years preparing for such a scenario. The Russian economy is strong enough to withstand the impact of Western sanctions.
After the attack, world leaders condemned the unprovoked attack on Ukraine and pledged to hold Russia accountable. Biden will speak with the Group of Seven leaders Thursday, and additional sanctions against Russia are expected soon after. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s interior minister Anton Gerashchenko told Facebook users that the Russian military was responsible for the attacks.
A Pew Research Center survey found that almost half of American adults viewed the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a major threat to their nation’s security. Another half said it was a minor threat, while 41% said they were not sure. Despite this divide, most Americans are opposed to the idea of military action against Russia, even if it means a nuclear war with Russia.
Military action against Russia would be a disastrous decision if Russia invades Ukraine. The invasion would not only be devastating to Ukraine, but would be disastrous for Russia and the rules-based international system. The best course of action is to engage in diplomatic dialogue to avoid a conflict. But the Russian military invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to occur unless the United States initiates such a military response.
Russian politicians calling up as many men as possible
The war in eastern Ukraine is forcing Russian politicians to call up as many men as possible for military service. As a result, many people have volunteered to join the Russian military, paramilitary groups, and private military companies. Others have joined the armies of the “People’s Republics” in Luhansk and Donetsk. Many of them have been killed, and the protests have sparked a growing anti-Putin movement.
Many experts have raised questions about Russia’s military readiness. Russia has a large population of conscripts and reservists, but the quality of conscript training has been poor. As a result, conscripts often end up unprepared for a real war. Furthermore, Russia is still struggling to modernize new weapons and organize its military.
The mobilisation has sparked widespread fear in Russia, with protests in large cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in rural Siberia. Over one thousand people have been arrested. The Kremlin has said it cannot fully understand the emotional reaction of the public to this military call. Several opposition politicians are calling for a protest, which they hope will stop the mobilisation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree calling up some 300,000 reservists for military service. Unlike conscripts, reservists have the experience of combat. The government also intends to call up reserve officers aged 60 and older. The government says it needs extra troops to defend the 1,000 km front line. If Putin succeeds in his plan, the country could mobilise up to 25 million people for military service.
The escalation in the Ukraine war led to the mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens. The government has been offering large financial incentives and reservists are expected to join the armed forces. This is a political control measure.
Kiev’s coup d’etat provokes civil war in eastern Ukraine
The United States is flooding Ukraine with weapons and using the country as its anti-Russian proxy while plotting to essentially plunder its post-war economy. Since the 2014 coup d’etat, which overthrew the democratically elected government, Ukraine has been plagued by violence. In February 2022, Russia invaded, triggering a new phase of the war.
The United States has backed fascist groups that have been attacking Ukrainian security forces and storming government buildings. These groups have a history of killing left-wing politicians and socialists. They have received support and training from the United States and NATO. The Ukrainian coup d’etat has only made their numbers grow. There is no normal anti-fascist force in the country; however, the U.S. government backed the coup by handpicking the fascists to lead the new regime. The government’s decision to choose the fascists was revealed in a leaked recording.
The Ukrainian parliament passed a law repealing this law in February 2014, but it was not signed into law. This led to outrage in the eastern Ukrainian community. Interim President Turchynov refused to sign it into law. In the meantime, the media propagated the wildest interpretations of the law, and this ultimately fueled the armed insurgency in eastern Ukraine.
The European Union and United States have attempted to erase the history of foreign-sponsored civil war in Ukraine. The United States sent massive amounts of weapons to Ukraine, while the European Union offered massive military support and training to the Kyiv government. These Western governments also held conferences to discuss ways to profit from the civil war. The goal of these conferences was to promote aggressive right-wing reforms in Ukraine.
The neoliberal economic proposals presented by the Ukraine Recovery Conference are nothing more than repackaged Washington Consensus. They advocate massive privatizations, gutting labor protections, and reducing taxes on the rich. The result is a massive burden on Ukrainian workers. The United Nations has warned that the harsh neoliberal reforms in Russia resulted in 3.2 million excess deaths and 18 million children living in poverty.
